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Bitcoin’s Price Is Just $300 Away From a Short-Term Bear Reversal




  • Bitcoin is on the defensive, having closed below $8,000 last week. The price has also established a bearish lower high at $8,135.
  • A short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change, however, would be confirmed if the price drops below $7,432 (June 4 low), establishing a lower low.
  • With the weekly chart reporting a bearish candlestick pattern, a UTC close below $7,432 looks likely.
  • The daily relative strength index’s move above the falling trendline would revive the short-term bullish outlook.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) bulls need to keep prices above key support at $7,432 to avert a short-term bearish reversal.

At the current price of $7,685 (as per Bitstamp), the leading cryptocurrency by market value is down 15 percent from the May 30 high of $9,097 – the highest level since the same month in 2018

The double-digit price drop has spurred fears of a trend reversal. After all, prices have found acceptance below the crucial 30-day price average. Further, key technical indicators are flashing signs of bullish exhaustion.

Even so, it is still too early to call a bearish reversal as BTC is yet to confirm the most basic of all bearish chart patterns, a paired lower high and lower low.

A lower high has been established, though, with the bounce from the June 4 low of $7,432 topping out at $8,135 on June 7.

Therefore, the immediate outlook is neutral and a bearish reversal would only be confirmed if BTC drops below $7,432 to print that lower low.

With the price currently trading at $7,730, the short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change is less than $300 away.

Daily chart

The lower high created by BTC’s shallow bounce from the June 4 low of $7,432 looks to be the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bearish reversal pattern.

A UTC close below $7,432 would activate twin bearish cues: a lower high/lower low and a head-and-shoulders (H&S) breakdown.

The H&S breakdown, if confirmed, would create room for a drop to $5,800 (target as per the measured move method). On the way lower, BTC may find support at the 50-day MA, currently at $7,000.

With the relative strength index (RSI) reporting a bearish divergence, a close below $7,432 looks likely.

Weekly chart

BTC fell 12.6 percent last week and closed Sunday (UTC time) well below $8,000, validating the bullish exhaustion signaled by the previous week’s doji candle.

Essentially, the doji candle and the bearish follow-through indicate the period of indecision or exhaustion in the market place has ended with the bears victorious.

The risks, therefore, are skewed to the downside.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

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Samourai, Nodl to Launch Bitcoin Lightning Node With Mixing Features




The mobile bitcoin wallet project Samourai Wallet is partnering with the French hardware retailer Nodl to create a bitcoin node device that syncs with Samourai’s privacy-centric mobile wallet.

Revealed exclusively to CoinDesk, Nodl co-founder Michel Luczak said this new product will be a “full, self-validating, bitcoin and lightning node” that allows people to use the mobile wallet app without relying on Samouri Wallet’s servers. This has long been a point of contention, as critics argue the wallet’s privacy features are insufficient if users’ transaction data is stored on a centralized server anyway.

The new node devices will be available this year, the Samourai Wallet team told CoinDesk. Plus, Nodl node owners will be able to update their devices to add Samourai Wallet’s Dojo software. This software will include a feature called Whirlpool, which batches bitcoin transactions together across wallets in order to obfuscate the source of funds.

“In addition to Dojo being preloaded onto Nodl devices we will also be preloading Whirlpool desktop mixing, allowing users to access and manage their Samourai Wallet mixing on their desktop,” the Samourai team told CoinDesk.

The partnership comes as Nodl sales see an uptick, according to Luczak, expecting to sell roughly 500 devices in 2019 if the current trajectory continues.

“For the first time you’ll have a one-click install mixing service that’s available to anyone,” Luczak said.

Earlier this month, the company behind Samourai, Katana Cryptographic, announced its first venture funding round: a $100,000 investment from Cypherpunk Holdings.

Samurai sword image via Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Trade Volume on Coinbase Hit a 14-Month High in May




Bitcoin trading volume on the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, hit the highest amount seen in 14 months in May.

During the month of May, Coinbase facilitated the trade of 738,959.42 bitcoins — worth approximately $5.9 billion at current market prices — according to data from Bitcoinity.

This development marks the exchange’s highest level of bitcoin trade volume since March of 2018. Additionally, it also represents the sixth-most voluminous month for bitcoin trading on the exchange to date. Perhaps not surprisingly, the rise in volume was accompanied by a 60 percent price increase for the cryptocurrency itself.

Bitcoin Trade Volume on Coinbase (Monthly)

The most bitcoin ever traded in a month on Coinbase was December of 2017, when the cryptocurrency’s reached as high as $19,891 and 1,275,295.522 BTC traded hands on the exchange.

Now with the price of bitcoin trading roughly 60 percent lower than its all-time high at the time of writing, the total units traded in May coincidentally make up nearly 60 percent of the amount seen during the explosive trading month of December 2017.

Disclosure: The author holds several cryptocurrencies. Please see his author bio for more information. 

Coinbase image via Shutterstock

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May Was Best Month for CME Bitcoin Futures Volume Since 2017




May was the best month for derivatives giant CME’s bitcoin futures volume since its 2017 launch, as nearly 300,000 contracts were traded in the 31-day period.

Average daily volume (ADV) reached more than 13,600 contracts, equal to $515 million notional value or 68,000 equivalent bitcoin, up 27 percent when compared to the month of April. On May 13, bitcoin futures traded a record single-day volume of 33,677 contracts (168,000 equivalent bitcoin or $1.3 billion notional value) while on May 28, BTC hit a record open interest of 5,190 contracts.

It may be a sign that institutional interest is on the rise, with 223 trading accounts added in May, the most since January 2018 according to research conducted by CME Group.

Volume month to month

As can be seen on the chart above May marked a 27 percent increase in volume on the month prior and a 73.69 percent increase on March, 2019’s volumes, hinting at gradual increasing interest in bitcoin futures.

Open interest month to month

Volume and open interest, however, are two distinctly different things.

While volume is the number of contracts traded in a day, after each session, the figure starts over at zero. Open interest, on the other hand, is the number of contracts that have been created and that are open.

As can be seen above, futures were first listed on the CME at the height of the bull market in December 2017. Futures trading activity, however, remained dull through 2018, courtesy of the crypto bear market.

Still, the data suggests interest is building, suggesting more firms are using the tool to manage risk or else speculate on the crypto markets.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing

CME director of equity products Tim McCourt via Flickr

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